JustinLogan.com: Just Over the Transom

January 2008

July 07, 2005

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Just Over the Transom

The first will be of interest to Arabic-readers, since it supposedly links to the website that posted the original claim of responsibility. The second is an account from Stratfor, which claims that the Israeli government shared intel with the British warning of a possible attack days earlier, but that the British ignored it. (NB: To be crystal clear, the interesting thing about the Stratfor report isn't based in any crackpot conspiracy-mongering about this report; quite the contrary, the interesting claim is that Israel informed Britain days before and Blair sat on the information "hoping this would be another false alarm." If that's true, it could cause big trouble for Blair.)

So much of this is totally sketchy right now (as I've been telling everybody I've been talking to, "Look, MI5 doesn't have a clue what happened yet, so there's no way we can."), but for informational purposes, here goes:

Jamestown Experts Monitoring Terror Attacks in London

Washington DC -- For Immediate Release

July 7, 2005 – While developments surrounding today's terrorist attacks in London are continuing to unfold, it is clear that the attack bore all the hallmarks of al-Qaeda. The message of responsibility posted by ‘The Secret Organization of al-Qaeda in Europe' was posted on the al-Qal'a web forum, [http://www.qal3ati.net], used previously by bin Laden and other al-Qaeda members to issue messages. Jamestown's Senior Fellow on Terrorism Stephen Ulph is based in London and closely monitoring today's events. Ulph is the editor of Jamestown's Terrorism Focus (available online at: http://www.jamestown.org/terrorism) and an expert on Islamist terrorism and Jihadists' use of the web.

According to both Ulph and Michael Scheuer, a writer and analyst for Terrorism Focus and former chief of the CIA's bin Laden unit, the coordinated and concurrent bomb attacks targeting key infrastructure in a major Western city are characteristic of al-Qaeda or a group seeking to imitate them.

For more background on London's network of Islamist groups, see Stephen Ulph's "Londonistan", available at http://www.jamestown.org/terrorism/news/article.php?search=1&articleid=23565. Stephen Ulph was the founding editor of Jane's Terrorism & Security Monitor and Islamic Affairs Analyst. He is now also the senior writer on the Islamic Affairs Analyst journal and contributes regularly on terrorism and security issues to Jane's Information Group.

Michael Scheuer has written repeatedly that despite the loss of several leading figures of the organization over the past three years, al-Qaeda remains capable of sophisticated and damaging attacks against the West. Scheuer served in the CIA for 22 years before resigning in 2004 and is the once anonymous author of Imperial Hubris: How the West is Losing the War on Terror.

And from Stratfor:

The Associated Press reported July 7 that an anonymous source in the Israeli Foreign Ministry said Scotland Yard had warned the Israeli Embassy in London of possible terrorist attacks in the U.K. capital. The information reportedly was passed to the embassy minutes before the first bomb struck at 0851 London time. The Israeli Embassy promptly ordered Israeli Finance Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to remain in his hotel on the morning of July 7. Netanyahu was scheduled to participate in an Israeli Investment Forum Conference at the Grand Eastern Hotel, located next to the Liverpool Street Tube station -- the first target in the series of bombings that hit London on July 7.

Several hours later, Israeli Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom officially denied reports that Scotland Yard passed any information to Israel regarding the bombings, and British police denied they had any advanced warning of the attacks. The British authorities similarly denied that any information exchange had occurred.

Contrary to original claims that Israel was warned “minutes before” the first attack, unconfirmed rumors in intelligence circles indicate that the Israeli government actually warned London of the attacks “a couple of days” previous. Israel has apparently given other warnings about possible attacks that turned out to be aborted operations. The British government did not want to disrupt the G-8 summit in Gleneagles, Scotland, or call off visits by foreign dignitaries to London, hoping this would be another false alarm.

The British government sat on this information for days and failed to respond. Though the Israeli government is playing along publicly, it may not stay quiet for long. This is sure to apply pressure on Blair very soon for his failure to deter this major terrorist attack.

July 07, 2005 | Permalink

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January 2008

July 07, 2005

Just Over the Transom

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