« The Raico Reversal | Main | Our Man in Uzbekistan »

December 29, 2004

TrackBack

TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://www.typepad.com/services/trackback/6a00d8341f034953ef00d83469eca569e2

Listed below are links to weblogs that reference Settle, Boy, Settle!:

Comments

Bill Woolsey

One key difference between Vietnam and
Iraq involves the potential for
Vietnamization.

The Sunni fundamentalist/Baathist insurgency has no support among 80% of the population and next to no support in something like 2/3 of the territory of Iraq.

Since the U.S. gave in to Sistani and agreed to elections rather than waiting for the new (liberal democratic) Iraqi man to arise, the result will soon be a Shiite government.

It seems likely that the survival of that government will not be seriously threatened
by the insurgents.

What we will see instead is a problematic effort by that government to impose its will in the Sunni Arab areas of Iraq.

If the Shia government wants U.S. aid in that effort, then the result will be an effective "Vietnamization" of the confict.

I believe that the new government will insist
on a rapid U.S. withdrawal. Rather than
depending on some future, highly-trained
professional army devoted to liberal
democracy (the current plan,) it will depend
on a mass army or poorly trained infantry
motivated by promises of heaven and fear of
renewed Sunni Arab domination--with an ultimate
security guarantee from Iran. I think they
can put it together soon.

Possible problems--

The U.S. government refuses to see the election as "legitimate" and refuses to do what the new government requests.

Iran doesn't insist that the U.S. leave (and move those troops further from Iran and so less of a threat to Iran) but rather prefers to let the U.S. army bleed in Sunni Iraq while being within range for Iranian retaliation in response to a U.S. attack on Iran.

I don't think those are likely, so I anticipate
the U.S. will be out soon and be giving aid.

But, we will see.

Jon Stopa

The existing situation here in Iraq is that the US Army has destroyed the Iraqi threat to Iran. It has done this by destroying its own Army. Just the result that a clever Iranian foreign policy might have. Two threats with one blow.

Munir Umrani

Jon Stopa makes an excellent point. It reminds me of the strategy the United States employed during the 1980s, when the Iraqis and the Iranians were slaughtering each other. The U.S. sided with former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein against the Iranians, who were viewed as an implacable foe, who had the audacity to hold U.S. diplomats hostage in 1979.

Both Iraq and Iraq were severely weakened by the war. Iraq was economically drained, which led it to try to grab Kuwait's oil fields. This was a costly mistake, which resulted in Western nations and some Arab nations forming a coalition to militarily force Iraq out of Kuwait. Economic sanctions were imposed on Iraq, from which it still has not recovered. The consequence of the U.S. strategy was that two potential foes were neutralized. Now, one of them--Iraq--is being occupied by the U.S. The question: Is Iran next?

Verify your Comment

Previewing your Comment

This is only a preview. Your comment has not yet been posted.

Working...
Your comment could not be posted. Error type:
Your comment has been posted. Post another comment

The letters and numbers you entered did not match the image. Please try again.

As a final step before posting your comment, enter the letters and numbers you see in the image below. This prevents automated programs from posting comments.

Having trouble reading this image? View an alternate.

Working...

Post a comment