Amid bomb threats on the Metro this morning, it occurs to me once again that it's truly odd that we haven't had another significant terrorist attack in the US since 9/11. It seems like every day, a story about somebody boarding a plane with fake plastic explosives, a gun, box cutters, scissors, et cetera surfaces. There's no doubt in my mind that the law of averages ain't in our favor here.
For a long time, it's been a favorite mantra of Republicans that Reagan intentionally escalated the arms race with the Soviets, knowing that the economic deficiencies of socialism would eventually choke out the Soviet government if it tried to keep up with capitalism. That's been a pretty contentious assertion, but let's accept it for now, if not as the truth, as a viable possibility.
What's to say that Bin Laden isn't doing the same thing? It's often been pointed out that al Qaeda has a pretty clear line of sight into American culture and politics. Isn't it possible that Bin Laden sees in Bush a man who is willing to overstretch our "defense" department to near its breaking point, entrenching hundreds of thousands of troops abroad, and pouring hundreds of billions of dollars down foreign rat-holes? Isn't it possible that Bin Laden sees in Bush a man who is eager to throttle the very foundation of American power (our system of free enterprise) with multi-trillion dollar socialist boondoggles?
Is it not reasonable to assert that Bush is precisely the type of man Bin Laden wants to be up against -- because Bin Laden thinks he's a foolhardy opponent? Seriously, imagine that five years from now Bush has kept the hundred-or-so thousand troops in Europe and on Okinawa, defending the citizenry from, well, nobody. Imagine there are still sixty thousand or so troops in the Middle East, mostly trying to build schools and dodge RPGs in Iraq. Imagine that Bush has taken his 2004 election victory as a mandate for the neoconservative view of America's role in the world, and decides he's had enough of Assad or Khameini, and so we have, say, another hundred thousand troops in Syria or Iran, and the requisite spending boondoggles for continuing to try to force that part of the world into the eighteenth century.
In that scenario, how could we have a vital, serious force dedicated to defending our country? Last I checked, Tom Ridge doesn't have any battalions at his disposal, and if TSA is supposed to be fighting the terrorists at home, then maybe it's time to just head off to Verseilles and call it a day. Rumblings about conscription (scroll up slightly) have surfaced lately, but one can only hope that even this Administration can't be THAT insane.
The flypaper strategy ("taking the fight to the terrorists where they live") clung to by such theorists as Andrew Sullivan seems to be the foundation for all of this, so it's a shame that it's doomed to failure. Its fatal conceit, as Gene has pointed out, is that it assumes a fixed number of terrorists. If there were only (and could only be), say, 5,000 terrorists hell-bent on destroying America, and if, in fact, we were effectively luring them into fighting our troops in Iraq instead of taking out soft targets in America, then the policy might carry some strategic weight. But it doesn't account for the fact that our adventure in Iraq and elsewhere might actually have pissed a couple of people off. In sports, when somebody gets hurt, even in the course of fair play, the offended team will often rally around their hurt comrade, and clear away the offending team members. When we kill innocents in Iraq (or when Israel does so in Palestine, or vice versa), the last thing the offended team wants is to have the killers nosing into the crowd, clearing away the offended team, marching proudly and occupying the scene. I can only imagine how frustrating and outrage-inducing that must be. It seems like that might marginalize those who would otherwise be on our side.
Once again, I'm calling for Bush to kick out Rummy, Perle, Wolfie, Condie, Scooter, Feith(ie?), and all the other neocon operatives from positions of influence in the Administration. I'd tell them in person, but --oop, that's Howard Dean calling, I've got to go...